13th
A Look At The 2010 Runoffs
Check out this post: http://capitolannex.com/2010/04/13/a-look-at-the-2010-runoffs/)
Today, voters across the state head to the polls to vote in a few remaining local—and, on the Republican side, statewide—runoffs for the primary.
Here is Capitol Annex’s look at the hottest 2010 runoff races, with our predictions on who wins.
STATEWIDE, REPUBLICAN
Texas Supreme Court, Place 3: Debra Lehrmann v. Rick Green. This will be perhaps the most interesting runoff to watch tonight. It is basically a career judge versus a tea-bagger wingnut and former State Representative and infomercial spokesman to replace retiring Justice Harriet O’Neill.. This runoff will give us a pretty good picture—statewide—of how dedicated the teabagger segment of the electorate really is beyond primary day. If teabaggers turn out in good numbers, then Green could win by a nose. If they stay home, or forget to vote because they are too busy protesting unfair taxes or guarding their local laundromat from illegal aliens to vote, the race belongs to Lehrmann. Lehrmann has a ton of mainstream Republican endorsements, as well as the Texas Farm Bureau AgFund PAC, and most newspaper endorsements. OUR PREDICTION: Reading the tea bags, er, uh, tea leaves, is a little tricky on this one. It reminds me of the of the 1998 Barry Williamson v. John Cornyn runoff match-up. A lot of right-wing, ultra-Christian conservatives supported Williamson going into the runoff but in the end went with the more viable candidate or simply stayed away from the polls. Williamson, incidentally, is the campaign manager for teabagger David Porter, who defeated Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillio in the primary earlier this year. Our prediction: Lehrmann by 3.5 percent.Green bested Lehrmann by less than a percentage point going into the runoff.
DISTRICT RACES, REPUBLICAN
STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION, DISTRICT 10: Marsha Farney v. Brian Russell. In the race to replace wingnut Obama-hater Cynthia Dunbar, homeschooling patent lawyer Brian Russell faces Marsha Farney, a more “mainstream” candidate and former educator in the GOP Primary. This race was pretty much a statistical dead-heat in the primary. Naturally, it is yet another SBOE contest where a rightwing loon with no education experience is running against a more mainstream conservative. Farney is endorsed by former Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings—which probably isn’t a huge plus. Either way, Farney is by far the more qualified candidate for Republicans. OUR PREDICTION: Again, this one depends upon how strong teabagger voting strength remains after the primary. Farney by 5 percent.
TEXAS HOUSE DISTRICT 14. Rep. Fred Brown v. Buddy Winn. A fairly bizarre contest for the central Texas House District 14 pits incumbent state Rep. Fred Brown against longtime Brazos County Tax Assessor Buddy Winn. Brown was well ahead of Winn going into the runoff and leads Winn in fundraising and cash on hand. Ironically, both candidates agree on major issues. Winn is counting on an anti-incumbency wave he likely won’t see to put him over Brown. OUR PREDICTION: Brown by 13 percent.
TEXAS HOUSE DISTRICT 66. Who knew that wealthy former marine Van Taylor, the man who went down in flames against Congressman Chet Edwards in 2006, would resurface so soon? He’s now the presumed darling of the teabagger movement in a district that is more good-government conservative than teabagger. Taylor has lent his campaign more than three-quarters of a million dollars making his race likely the most expensive legislative primary race in Texas history. His opponent, Mabrie Jackson, a former Plano City Councilwoman, is far from a liberal—taking cash from Houston home builder Bob Perry—but is far more mainstream than Taylor. OUR PREDICTION: Money won’t buy this district. In spite of its growth in the last decade and a half, Plano’s GOP electorate still includes a lot of old-line conservatives for whom paying your dues matters. Taylor’s teabagger ties will likely hurt him in this district, but his money will make him more competitive. Mabrie by 3.25 percent.
DISTRICT RACES, DEMOCRATIC
HOUSE DISTRICT 76. Norma Chavez v. Naomi R. Gonzalez. We’ve already summarized this race here, so we won’t spend a lot more time doing it again.. The long-and-short of it is that Norma Chaves fell out of favor of the lawsuit reform crowd, Gonzalez picked them up, and that El Paso has a nasty habit of turning out incumbents in runoffs like this. PREDICTION: Gonzalez by 4 percent.
There are also GOP runoffs in HD 47, HD 52, HD 83 (where incumbent Delwin Jones will face Charles Berry), HD 84, HD 127, and HD 149. Congressional Districts 17 and 23 will also see runoffs on the GOP side.
